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应用易感者 - 暴露者 - 感染者 - 康复者模型对 COVID-19 的传播及防御措施分析

Analysis of COVID-19 Transmission and Preventative Measures with Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered Model

  • 摘要: 该文通过易感者-暴露者-感染者-康复者模型分析新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)在人群中传播的过程, 及不同防御措施对疫情曲线的影响, 针对结果为疫情的防控提出建议。根据人群接触网络模式对易感者-暴露者-感染者-康复者模型进行改进, 加入隔离、中医药干预等模型元素, 构建符合新冠肺炎传播特点的数学模型。将影响新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情发展趋势的关键因素作为模型变量, 通过实际疫情发展情况对模型进行调节, 分析不同因素对病毒扩散的影响。结果显示, 隔离和中医药干预措施在防御新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情中, 预测结果与实际情况基本相符, 说明通过隔离及中医药干预措施可以对控制疫情起到积极作用。

     

    Abstract: In this paper, an improved susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered model has been designed to simulate the complex transmission of Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). With the aid of computer simulation, the influence of different preventative measures on epidemic control was analyzed. Comments are put forward based on the analysis for the prevention and control of the epidemic control in the future. The SEIR model is a classical model of virus transmission which has been improved in the paper by adding more parameters such as quarantine and Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) intervention measures. With the characteristics of simulating self-replication of living systems, the developed model is applied to simulate the development trend of COVID-19. Furthermore, the key factors affecting the development trend of the disease were considered to discuss the effect on the virus transmission. A simulation model which reflects the transmission, quarantine, and Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) intervention measures of COVID-19 has been designed accordingly. The model prediction results have demonstrated that the estimation of quarantine measures and Chinese medicine interventions are basically consistent with the actual situation in the prevention of COVID-19, indicating that quarantine and intervention of Chinese medicine can play a positive role in controlling the epidemic situation.

     

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